Is the Ability to Shop for Groceries a Predictor of Longevity?

Longevity may be the most important trend we’ve ever experienced. It’s driven by — and in turn, it affects — everything from health to housing, money to technology, lifestyle to social policy. There’s so much to be aware of — and it’s just getting started! Now you can keep up with all the latest developments in this weekly column.

 

What’s a predictor of longevity?

Not surprisingly, there are many possible answers and researchers are constantly identifying (or theorizing about) new ones. I report on this frequently, and I make no apology for the fact that there doesn’t appear to be a single overarching narrative, but rather an ongoing process of new evidence and new ideas.

Now researchers from Duke Health have produced a new analysis, reported here, that identifies no less than 17 “predictive variables” with a causal link to longevity. Some of them do involve microbiological factors and some are obvious and already well known (don’t some) but a few jump out as being unexpected and very interesting.

First let me sum up what the researchers did and how they did it.

They were trying to predict whether a person over the age of 70 was likely to live two more years, five more years or 10 more years.

They analyzed a cache of 1,500 blood samples that were part of a longitudinal study of older people, begun in the ’80s. The blood samples were taken in 1992 when all the participants were at least 71 years old. After all these years, the bank of samples were scheduled to be destroyed but the researchers were able to get their hands of them before this happened.

The date the samples were taken is important, because 1992 was a time “that preceded the widespread use of medications such as statins, which could have skewed the results.” As well, the participants in that original study were followed for several years and had filled out questionnaires about their health histories and habits. So the researchers had a lot to work with and it was essentially a matter of applying up-to-date (and very sophisticated) analytical tools.

One of the 17 factors was having an abundance of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, “and not just any HDL lipids, but high volumes of very small HDL particles.” The researchers found this surprising. The article quotes lead author Dr. Virginia Byers Kraus, professor in the departments of Medicine, Pathology and Orthopedic Surgery at Duke University School of Medicine. “We hypothesize that these very small HDL particles are the size that is best at scavenging and clearing endotoxin, a potent inflammation-causing molecule from gut microbes, from the circulation [VBKMP1]. The small particle may also be best able to get into the nooks and crannies of cells to remove the bad cholesterol, so having more of them could provide this protective benefit.”

Another big factor — no surprise here — was non-smoking, It was a common factor in predicting all three ranges of longevity past 70 — two years, five years and 10.

But physical function was also huge. And this is the part that surprised me (and provoked the headline for this post).

The ability to do grocery shopping or perform household chores was a bigger predictor than having cancer or heart disease (both of which were not among the 17 factors).

Note that it’s physical function and not necessarily having a superman level of physical fitness. Remember the 10-second standing-on-one-foot test I blogged about several weeks ago? It all makes sense intuitively — obviously if you’re able to perform routine daily tasks on your own, you’re in better shape to live longer. But now comes clinical validation of this.

Findings like this should encourage more people to work at issues like mobility, balance and body function, and not be intimidated by complex exercise programs that may demand unrealistic levels of engagement or strive for unrealistic levels of accomplishment. Walking, some resistance training (not necessarily pumping iron) and some relatively gentle exercises around stretching and balance may get you off to a very good start — and many more years.

 

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